Half -lifeIs a reward of the BTC published on the Bitcoin network.50% reductionThis is a pre -programmed event. This is a core mechanism for limiting the total issuance of Bitcoin to 21 million, which occurs every 4 years (Expected half -life:April 2028).
1.The core principle of half -life
- Reduction of mining rewards: The BTC reward received by the miner when creating a block is reduced in half (for example, 6.25 BTC in 2020 → 3.125 BTC in 2024).
- Inflation control: Reduced new supplyInflation rate(1.8% → 0.9%, etc. per year) and strengthen long -term value storage function.
- Market psychological impact: Investors' demand for increase in expectations increases.
2.Historical half -life and price fluctuations
| Half -life | Price fluctuations within 1 year after half -life | Main Features |
|---|
| November 2012 | $ 12 → $ 1,100(9,000%↑) | Initial half -life, initial investor attention |
| July 2016 | $ 650 → $ 2,500(284%↑) | Institutional investment starts |
| May 2020 | $ 8,700 → $ 64,000(635%↑) | Fan Demic Liquidity + Institutional Buy |
📌caution: Short -term adjustment immediately after half -life (e.g., 30% decline after half -life in 2016).
3.Half -life response investment strategy
3-1.Long-Term Holder Strategy
- "BUY and HOLD": Focus on the cycle of rising 12-18 months after half -life.
- Example: After half -life in 2020, the November 2021 report was achieved.
- DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): Distributed volatile risks by buying monthly/quarterly fixed amount.
3-2.Short -term trader strategy
- Preliminary half -war rally: Cumulative Buy from Half Life 6 months ago → Sell before the event.
- Volatility:
- IV (intrinsic volatility)Sell high options → Maximize premium profits.
- Support (e.g. 200 -day moving average) Use a buy signal when it breaks through.
- Mining company: Mara, Riot, etc.
- BTC Gift ETF: Short -term leverage utilization or hedge strategy.
- Altcoin: The possibility of benefiting from Bitcoin alternative materials such as LTC and BCH in half -life rally.
4.Risk management essential elements
- Past ≠ Future: 2024 half -life is influenced by the existing cycle and other macro environments (interest rates, regulations, etc.).
- Mining: Increased BTC Sales → Short -term decline.
- Market efficiency: The half -life impact may have already been shown (EMH assumption).
5.Practice checklist
- Half -life 3 ~ 6 months ago: Increase the proportion of BTCs of more than 50% of portfolio.
- 1 month immediately after half -life: Stopros (15-20%) set for volatility expansion.
- 1 year after half -life: Step -up (for example, 50% selling) when achieving target yields.
6.Conclusion: The half -life is just "trigger"
Half lifeTechnical scarcityStrengthen, but does not determine the price alone.Macroeconomic trend (interest rate, liquidity),Inflow of institutional capital (GrayScale, Black Rock),Regulatory changeYou need to analyze it comprehensively. The core isAccurate synchro rate of "half -life cycle + market cycle"To find.